SCANWHALE

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EX

EXPECTLESS

🦈SHARK
0x78c6...4710POLYMARKET
30-Day Profit/Loss
+$37K
All-Time
+$37K
30D Volume
$35K
Win Rate
51.61%
26 active positions - heavily diversified

Safe Player

[SAF]

"Protect the bankroll."

Focuses on high-probability bets with limited downside. Never bets the farm.

Frequency
Risk Tolerance
Patience
Precision
Strengths
Capital preservationSteady returnsLow drawdowns
Weakness
Limited upside

Active Positions

// 20 open
Total Value$487K
Unrealized$-35K
11/20 profitable

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

YESEntry: 0.72¢Size: 394,475.97HIGH
$-10K
-3.61%

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

YESEntry: 0.78¢Size: 198,716.03HIGH
$-35K
-22.28%

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

YESEntry: 0.78¢Size: 32,086.51LOW
-$806
-3.22%

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0.2¢Size: 75,854.59LOW
+$8,898
+59.33%

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?

YESEntry: 0.98¢Size: 17,999.88LOW
+$378
+2.15%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?

YESEntry: 0.95¢Size: 7,817.62LOW
+$296
+3.99%

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

NOEntry: 0.53¢Size: 9,409.76LOW
-$988
-19.81%

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 143,031.22LOW
+$3,075
+537.5%

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0.04¢Size: 74,530.75LOW
-$728
-22.85%

Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0.01¢Size: 108,658.8LOW
-$523
-32.49%

Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 565,497.14LOW
-$283
-25%

Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 524,988.93LOW
+$262
+50%

Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 521,273.49LOW
+$261
+50%

Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 486,314.1LOW
+$243
+50%

Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 286,811.21LOW
-$143
-16.67%

Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 462,294.02LOW
+$231
+50%

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 457,104.65LOW
+$229
+50%

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

NOEntry: 0.36¢Size: 1,427.83LOW
+$8
+1.53%

Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YESEntry: 0¢Size: 339,667.11LOW
-$170
-25%

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

NOEntry: 0.36¢Size: 1,169.55LOW
+$6
+1.49%

Trade History

// Last 23 trades
17 BUYS6 SELLS
$875K vol
Dec 10
1 trades
BUY

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

1,169.55@0.36¢
$420.62
07:14 PM
Dec 9
2 trades
SELL

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

109.66@0.93¢
$102.12
09:15 PM
SELL

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

4,457.69@0.32¢
$1,426.46
09:14 PM
Dec 2
7 trades
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

31.5@0.73¢
$23
07:58 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

1,620.18@0.76¢
$1,231.34
07:46 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

956.15@0.67¢
$641.08
07:43 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

50,246.35@0.66¢
$33,012.61
07:42 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

51,872.47@0.74¢
$38,588.71
07:42 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

46,458.79@0.71¢
$32,896.03
07:41 PM
SELL

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

99,099.75@1¢
$98,802.45
07:41 PM
Nov 30
4 trades
BUY

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

8,702.18@0.77¢
$6,700.68
06:37 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

46,303.55@0.74¢
$34,071.4
06:37 PM
BUY

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

13,384.33@0.79¢
$10,631.12
06:37 PM
SELL

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

110,311.83@0.86¢
$94,868.17
06:37 PM
Nov 28
4 trades
BUY

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

110,310.88@0.87¢
$95,970.47
10:40 AM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

13,882.6@0.64¢
$8,925.32
10:40 AM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

1,326.19@0.68¢
$897.29
10:40 AM
SELL

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

116,500@1¢
$116,034
10:40 AM
Nov 22
5 trades
BUY

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

33,500@1¢
$33,366
04:53 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

72,455.43@0.72¢
$52,194.79
04:52 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

38,603.4@0.7¢
$27,021.38
04:52 PM
BUY

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

54,898.07@0.68¢
$37,537.32
04:52 PM
SELL

Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026?

150,000@1¢
$149,550
04:52 PM

RELATED SIGNALS

5 signals from this trader

value_entry

Value Entry: expectless $59,788.57 total

11 tracked whale(s) show weak NO consensus (64%). Bayesian analysis suggests 6% lower true probability.

12/09
value_entry

Value Entry: expectless $191,940.94 total

51 tracked whale(s) show moderate YES consensus (75%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% higher true probability.

12/09
value_entry

Value Entry: expectless $189,736.34 total

51 tracked whale(s) show moderate YES consensus (75%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% higher true probability.

12/09
value_entry

Whale Alert: expectless $51,995.4 total

6 tracked whale(s) show moderate YES consensus (67%). Bayesian analysis suggests 7% higher true probability.

12/09
value_entry

C-Grade: expectless BUYs Yes (14 trades)

Expectless is an elite-ranked trader, but this trade has multiple red flags that make it unsuitable for copy-trading despite their pedigree. The critical issue is ENTRY PRICE: at 73.6%, you're buying near the peak of the probability curve with only 26% upside but 74% downside risk. Combined with 36.5% of available liquidity being your position, you'd face severe exit slippage that could turn a marginal 1.6% edge into a loss. The weak 51.6% win rate and mixed whale consensus further suggest this is not a high-conviction opportunity. Watch for price pullback to 55-65% range before considering entry; if it stays elevated, the market may be correctly priced and the edge already captured.

12/09