Signal Performance
Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Signal Performance
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
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Track realized outcomes, live mark-to-market, and actionable calibration with sample-aware framing
Track win rates, ROI, and signal accuracy
Loading performance data...
Win Rate
60.1%
2167W / 1441L / 9156P
Comparable outcomes: 3608
Realized P&L
+663.0%
Avg: +0.1%
Sum of per-signal returns • WATCH normalized to no-bet
Profit Factor
1.97
Healthy
wins / losses ratio
Brier Score
0.054
Low-sample read
provisional • n=24
Avg Resolution
N/A
time to market resolution
Active Actionable
1
+24.0% unrealized
1263 pending total
Actionable copy signals only • n=24
Brier Score: 0.054
Small samples can move sharply. Use this as a drift check, not as proof that the confidence model is fully calibrated.
Total Signals
24
Avg Error
25.2%
Buckets
3 / 10
Raw ML probabilities are quarantined in major categories when they collapse into unreliable sub-10% outputs.
| Category | Sample | Actual | Adj Prob | Raw ML | Conflict | Quarantine | Low-ML Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports | 28889 | 60.1% | 58.9% | 5.6% | 34.3% | 85.5% | 58.5% |
| politics | 3251 | 68.1% | 67.3% | 11.3% | 44.3% | 77.6% | 59.6% |
| crypto | 2276 | 70.3% | 70.4% | 13.4% | 50.7% | 79.3% | 65.2% |
| iran | 352 | 60.5% | 62.5% | 5.1% | 55.7% | 0.0% | 57.5% |
| finance | 124 | 87.1% | 83.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | 0.0% | 77.8% |
| ai | 40 | 72.5% | 56.8% | 1.7% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 71.0% |
COPY metrics are copy-trade results. WATCH is normalized to no-bet. AVOID and FADE are advisory cohorts.
Informational only; normalized to no-bet
Advisory signal; not directly comparable to copy-trade P&L
Copy-trade performance
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Atlantic Division?
Miyazaki: Andre Ilagan vs Liam Broady
Predators vs. Kings
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
Predators vs. Kings
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5
Flames vs. Golden Knights
Flames vs. Golden Knights
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the NBA Playoffs?
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers
Lakers vs. Thunder
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider
Menorca: Justin Engel vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Will Utrecht win Eredivisie?
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet
Menorca: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Ivan Gakhov
Pelicans vs. Kings
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Bucharest Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Adrian Mannarino
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?