SCANWHALE

BACK TO LEADERBOARD

BIG.CHUNGUS

🐬DOLPHIN
0x06dc...af59POLYMARKET
30-Day Profit/Loss
+$5,637
All-Time
+$5,637
30D Volume
$42K
Win Rate
76%
76% win rate - top tier accuracy
71 active positions - heavily diversified

Safe Player

[SAF]

"Protect the bankroll."

Focuses on high-probability bets with limited downside. Never bets the farm.

Frequency
Risk Tolerance
Patience
Precision
Strengths
Capital preservationSteady returnsLow drawdowns
Weakness
Limited upside

Active Positions

// 20 open
Total Value$149K
Unrealized+$24K
15/20 profitable

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

YESEntry: 0.65¢Size: 48,302.85HIGH
+$13K
+42.39%

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

YESEntry: 0.76¢Size: 45,374.52HIGH
+$8,025
+23.34%

Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

YESEntry: 0.88¢Size: 17,000.22HIGH
+$1,201
+8%

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

WICKEDEntry: 0.83¢Size: 10,000.36MED
+$923
+11.16%

Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

NOEntry: 0.93¢Size: 8,999.97MED
+$447
+5.33%

Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

NOEntry: 0.91¢Size: 8,409.47MED
+$465
+6.11%

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

YESEntry: 0.28¢Size: 19,999.75LOW
-$239
-4.31%

Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

NOEntry: 0.79¢Size: 3,454.43LOW
+$640
+23.57%

Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

NOEntry: 0.93¢Size: 2,249.52LOW
+$55
+2.62%

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

NOEntry: 0.56¢Size: 1,999.53LOW
+$461
+41.25%

Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

YESEntry: 0.9¢Size: 1,600.01LOW
+$16
+1.11%

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?

YESEntry: 0.16¢Size: 4,899.93LOW
+$462
+60.64%

Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

NOEntry: 0.96¢Size: 1,100.45LOW
+$20
+1.86%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?

YESEntry: 0.53¢Size: 2,299.79LOW
-$163
-13.51%

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

YESEntry: 0.21¢Size: 3,000.1LOW
+$195
+30.86%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026?

YESEntry: 0.78¢Size: 749.94LOW
-$50
-8.57%

Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?

YESEntry: 0.01¢Size: 44,443.87LOW
-$206
-41.68%

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

YESEntry: 0.06¢Size: 22,217.34LOW
-$1,120
-82.09%

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?

YESEntry: 0.24¢Size: 345.64LOW
+$1
+0.94%

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

YESEntry: 0.01¢Size: 748.69LOW
+$35
+939.96%

Trade History

// Last 50 trades
29 BUYS21 SELLS
$40K vol
Dec 11
24 trades
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

2,500@0.91¢
$2,275
07:11 PM
SELL

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

499.72@0.21¢
$104.94
06:50 PM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?

500@0.45¢
$225
06:49 PM
SELL

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

4,444@0.97¢
$4,296.39
06:49 PM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

4,111@0.91¢
$3,741.01
06:48 PM
BUY

Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?

95@0.21¢
$19.95
01:17 PM
BUY

Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?

50@0.19¢
$9.5
01:17 PM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?

267@0.41¢
$109.47
12:58 PM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

1,164@0.25¢
$291
12:56 PM
BUY

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

1,000@0.71¢
$709.59
10:18 AM
BUY

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

4,000@0.71¢
$2,838.07
10:08 AM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

350@0.24¢
$82.56
09:00 AM
BUY

Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?

1,000@0.61¢
$610
08:08 AM
BUY

Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?

1,000@0.61¢
$610
08:06 AM
BUY

Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?

200@0.15¢
$29.03
07:24 AM
BUY

Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?

1,000@0.6¢
$599.1
07:21 AM
SELL

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

5,556@0.96¢
$5,333.76
07:10 AM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

83.53@0.89¢
$74.34
07:09 AM
SELL

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

3,651@0.18¢
$657.18
06:45 AM
SELL

Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

700@0.88¢
$615.76
06:39 AM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

211.55@0.88¢
$186.16
06:21 AM
SELL

Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

289.72@0.89¢
$256.98
06:16 AM
SELL

Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

1,973.26@0.89¢
$1,761.26
06:16 AM
SELL

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

64.1@0.64¢
$41.02
05:52 AM
Dec 10
15 trades
SELL

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

999.99@0.89¢
$889.99
10:05 PM
SELL

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

2,998.7@0.21¢
$630.92
04:17 PM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

60.04@0.12¢
$6.9
03:35 PM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

2,000@0.18¢
$360
02:11 PM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

2,000@0.17¢
$340
01:37 PM
SELL

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?

335@0.62¢
$208.35
12:18 PM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

2,000@0.17¢
$340
10:16 AM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

200@0.17¢
$33.37
09:13 AM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

2,290@0.16¢
$366.4
09:00 AM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

10@0.16¢
$1.6
08:59 AM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

1,500@0.16¢
$240
08:47 AM
BUY

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

362@0.73¢
$264.26
07:59 AM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

1,000@0.89¢
$890
07:58 AM
BUY

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

56@0.2¢
$11.05
07:37 AM
BUY

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

36@0.12¢
$4.17
07:35 AM
Dec 9
6 trades
SELL

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

2,999.8@0.97¢
$2,905.43
09:51 PM
SELL

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

1,615@0.97¢
$1,566.59
09:51 PM
SELL

Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?

2,500.49@0.97¢
$2,420.94
07:17 PM
SELL

Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

700@0.97¢
$679.56
07:09 PM
SELL

Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

1,000@0.97¢
$971.82
07:08 PM
SELL

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

1,000@0.95¢
$950.7
07:03 PM
Dec 6
5 trades
SELL

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

268@0.26¢
$69.68
10:01 PM
SELL

Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?

500.26@0.01¢
$5
08:50 PM
SELL

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

778@0.01¢
$7.78
05:54 PM
SELL

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

2,000@0.01¢
$22
05:53 PM
BUY

Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 57m?

250@0.91¢
$227.5
05:52 PM

RELATED SIGNALS

5 signals from this trader

conviction

D-Grade: Big.Chungus BUYs No (2 trades)

Big.Chungus is a proven trader with strong track record and identified edge in entertainment markets, but this trade represents a fundamental copy-trading failure case: extreme price (91% NO) offers only 9% upside while risking 91% downside, and the negative EV of -23% is a mechanical rejection signal that overrides trader reputation. Kelly criterion returning 0.00% is the final confirmation that position sizing algorithms see no rational edge here for risk-adjusted returns. While the whale may have legitimate information suggesting Avatar's opening weekend will be below $123m, retail users copying at this extreme price are essentially betting on a tail outcome with terrible odds—this is a 'fade the hype' contrarian play better suited to the whale's bankroll and information set, not retail capital management.

12/12
conviction

Conviction: Big.Chungus $14,963.91 total

22 tracked whale(s) show strong YES consensus (91%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% higher true probability.

12/11
conviction

Conviction: Big.Chungus $5,676.14 total

Rank #6 trader entered Yes at 71%

12/11
conviction

Conviction: Big.Chungus $4,841.88 total

Rank #6 trader entered No at 97%

12/10
conviction

Conviction: Big.Chungus $5,810.86 total

11 tracked whale(s) show weak YES consensus (64%). Bayesian analysis suggests 1% lower true probability.

12/10